Konstruksjon av NorESM

En preliminær versjon av NorESM er konstruert.

An important task in NorClim is to extend the conventional climate models, i.e. the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice models, to incorporate the marine and terrestrial cycling of carbon. The latter model system is known as an Earth System Model (ESM).
A preliminary version of the NorClim ESM has been constructed based on the Bergen Climate Model (BCM), the Hamburg Oceanic Carbon Cycle (HAMOCC), and the terrestrial dynamic vegetation (LPJ) model.
The first simulation with the above model system has been carried out, based on the IPCC SRES A2 – or business-as-usual – emission scenario. Figure 1 shows that atmospheric CO2 concentration can quadruple from that of the preindustrial era by the end of 21st century. Figure 2 illustrates that globally, the oceanic carbon uptake rate could become significantly reduced in the future with the exception of a fairly stable oceanic uptake of carbon in the Southern Ocean. The reduced ocean uptake of carbon will thus intensify the human-induced greenhouse gas forcing.

Figure 1. Simulated time-series of atmospheric CO2 concentration for year 1850-2100 as compared to other Earth System Models and observations (red and blue dots). BCM-C is our model.

Figure 2. Simulated annual rate of anthropogenic carbon by the ocean globally and regionally as a function of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. BCM-C is our model.